Serie A: Lazio Out to Cement Third Place

Lazio vs Fiorentina

They’ve just seen off the Serie A champions in style so, as they prepare to welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Olimpico this Sunday, Lazio have every right to be confident.

Ok, a title bid seems highly unlikely for Maurizio Sarri’s men who still trail leaders Napoli by 13 points.

But if they are to make sure of a Champions League place – a stage they have only reached twice in the past decade – then it is matches like this they should be winning.

Talking Points

Few connected with the club will forget the Serie A 2023 highlights they delivered against the champions on Tuesday night in the capital.

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic scored after just four minutes and it was one-way traffic from there on in with Mattia Zaccagni, Luis Alberto, and Felipe Anderson all finding the back of the net.

Although a back-up striker could arrive, it’s unlikely the club will add any key reinforcements to their squad before next week’s January transfer window closes.

Yet more performances and results like Tuesday and Sarri may not need them.

The veteran coach has started to build an interesting project in the Italian capital, although if reports are to be believed, differences of opinion with sporting director Igli Tare and a supposed lack of backing from president Claudio Lotito could push him to look for an exit at the end of the season.

The two sides certainly come into this one in contrasting form since the turn of the year.

Although they began their post-World Cup return with a defeat to Lecce, Lazio are unbeaten in four games since in league and cup.

By comparison, Fiorentina have won just once in four league matches in 2023, and have not won away from home since the start of November.

The Viola have this week signed Italy international Salvatore Sirigu from Napoli, joining the Tuscans on a free transfer after just six months at the Stadio Maradona where he was not really involved.

A member of the Euro 2020-winning Italian squad, he should be a shrewd recruit, thought whether he can lift Fiorentina from the relative comfort of midtable to a European berth is a big ask for anyone.

Their task is made even harder with Gaetano Castrovilli and Arthur Cabral likely to miss the trip.

As for Lazio – who have kept a clean sheet in each of their previous three matches, preventing Sassuolo, Bologna, and Milan from finding the net – key striker Ciro Immobile will still be out due to injury, while Mario Gila is also rated doubtful.

History

Lazio have held a clear upper hand in this fixture in recent years. In fact, it’s fair to say they have been rather dominant with only one Viola success in the last 12 meetings,

That came in May 2021 when two goals from Dusan Vlahovic sealed a 2-0 home win in Florence.

Lazio won both league games last season, including the corresponding fixture when Pedro scored the only goal.

The return was won by a bigger margin with Milinkovic-Savic and Immobile on target in a 3-0 win.

Earlier this term, the gap was even wider as Matias Vecino headed the first against his former club with Mattia Zaccagni nodding the second as Lazio showed clinical first-half finishing.

Thumping finishes from Alberto and Immobile in the final five minutes added to Fiorentina’s misery.

It’s 2015 since Fiorentina won against Lazio in the Stadio Olimpico.

Then Vecino (two), Cristian Tello, and Federico Bernardeschi were the goal-getters in a 4-2 success.

Betting Tip

With the SBOTOP Serie A 2023 betting odds, Lazio are naturally firm favourites.

Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.44 immediately caught my eye, as did -0.50 @ 2.08.

The Florence side will earn you a nice pay day with victory, given they are priced Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.13.

The draw is on offer @ 3.20 with other bets to consider including Lazio 1X2 @ 2.08 and Fiorentina 1X2 @ 3.60.

A repeat of last season’s clash, won by a solitary goal from the hosts, is available @ 6.60 with Correct Score 1-0.

Goal options include Over 2.50 @ 2.01, Over 2.75 @ 2.33, Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.20, 2-3 @ 1.90, and 4-6 @ 3.70.

This is not a home banker if Fiorentina, who suffered a 1-0 defeat to Torino last weekend – despite racking up 63-per cent possession and 19 shots – can find their shooting boots.

Yet I still keep coming back to that initial offering which is why I am looking for Lazio to win.

 

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