Premier League: Arsenal Can’t Afford Slip-up at Slumping Saints

Southampton vs Arsenal

Arsenal’s hopes of finishing in the Premier League‘s top four are in danger amid a disastrous run of three defeats in four games.

The Gunners are still only three points behind north London rivals Tottenham for fourth spot with a game in hand, but with Spurs in scorching hot form and a tricky end-of-season run-in to come, they do not have much margin for error left.

Luckily, Arsenal will take on a slumping Southampton side that seems to be starting their summer vacation early as they’ve gone on a disastrous losing run.

Talking Points

Arsenal have issues on both ends

Arsenal’s Premier League 2022 odds of finishing in fourth have taken a big hit over the past month. That’s because Arsenal have lost three of their last four Premier League matches during that time, including back-to-back defeats to mid-table sides Crystal Palace and Brighton, who had been on a long winless run.

Arsenal’s once-formidable defence has fallen off significantly. Although, it hasn’t helped that both of Arsenal’s first-choice full-backs – Takehiro Tomiyasu and Kieran Tierney – are both out injured, as is key defensive midfielder Thomas Partey, who picked up a thigh injury against Crystal Palace.

Mikel Arteta has tried both Nuno Tavares and Granit Xhaka at left-back in the last two games in Tierney’s absence, and neither has worked out too well. Given how poorly the Xhaka move went against Brighton, Arteta may well place Xhaka back in midfield against Southampton, with Tavares getting another shot.

Aside from his injury-hit defence, though, Arteta also has issues to work out in attack as the Gunners are once again struggling to score goals consistently.

Alexandre Lacazette has done well as a facilitator in attack, but the French forward has contributed only one Premier League goal this calendar year. That has put more pressure on youngsters Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard to carry most of the attacking burden.

Nicolas Pepe came on as a substitute against Brighton – his first Premier League appearance in several weeks – and could be brought into the starting XI to provide an attacking spark against Saints. The Ivorian scored in Arsenal’s 3-1 win in their trip to St Mary’s last season.

Southampton slide continues

Southampton’s recent Premier League 2022 results have been simply appalling. Saints are winless in their last five Premier League games, with four defeats. That includes a comprehensive 6-0 defeat at the hands of Chelsea, who could have scored several more had they not hit the woodwork three times.

Centre-back Mohamed Salisu and captain James Ward-Prowse both committed errors which led to Chelsea goals, which is perhaps a sign that the team’s concentration levels are not all that high at this stage of the season.

With nothing left to play for this season, Saints are perhaps lacking the motivation and energy they need to play their high-pressing style.

But with a shallow squad with few other options at his disposal, coach Ralph Hasenhuttl is unlikely to make too many changes to what is a settled starting XI.

Although, he will have Armando Broja back to lead the attack. The 20-year-old was ineligible to play against his parent club Chelsea, but he will be back to look for his first Premier League goal since scoring against Spurs back in February.

Curiously, Broja’s last four goals in all competitions have all come against London clubs (Crystal Palace, Brentford, Tottenham, West Ham).

History

Arsenal and Southampton have met 45 times in the Premier League era, with Arsenal holding a significant 25-7 advantage in terms of wins. The two sides have also drawn 13 times.

The Gunners have continued their domination of Saints in recent years. Over their last 10 Premier League meetings, they have won six times and have drawn three.

Arsenal thumped Southampton 3-0 in their first meeting this season at the Emirates. Lacazette opened the scoring, then Odegaard and Gabriel added two more to complete the rout.

Betting Tip

SBOTOP odds have Arsenal installed as 1.96 favourites to snap their recent losing skid at St Mary’s. Southampton are 3.85 to win, while a draw is similarly priced at 3.35.

Clearly, Arsenal cannot afford to drop more points at Saints if they hope to overtake Spurs for fourth. So look for Arteta’s side to come out with a lot more purpose and take the game to Saints.

The absences in defence will make Arsenal vulnerable at the back, but I don’t expect Saints’ attackers to exploit that potential weakness enough.

 

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