Europa League: Two Comrades but Only One can be on the Verge of Glory

Bayer Leverkusen vs AS Roma

The Europa League Final is beckoning for a pretender from Germany or Italy.

Both have been starved of success in modern times, in fact Bayer Leverkusen have been one of the ‘nearly men’ of European football.

Yet now there is a chance for them to put that right as two men who worked together in Spain go head-to-head in the dugout.

It’s Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen against Jose Mourinho’s AS Roma.

Talking Points

Let me start with the visitors.

After a first season in which he delivered some silverware, albeit at the most basic of levels for a club of Roma’s stature, I suggested the jury was still out on Mourinho with his current charges.

For success in the Europa Conference – a competition set up to grant more clubs access to European football and the poor relation of football’s trophies – could not mask the bigger picture.

I said at the time that it had little kudos and, only if the triumph sparked improvement and tangible success for the club from the capital in the years to come, would it be considered a worthwhile launchpad.

That remains my view which would soften should he then guide them to Europa League success.

Roma certainly impressed in the quarter-finals as they overcame the challenge of now newly crowned Dutch champions Feyenoord in style.

But with them losing momentum in Serie A since then, a goalless draw in Bologna at the weekend left them six points behind the top four in Serie A with only three games remaining, this really is their only chance – especially if, as suggested, Mourinho is snaffled up by the riches of Paris St Germain in the summer.

Leverkusen are in a similar boat domestically.

They followed up their narrow first leg loss in Rome last week with a 1-1 draw at VfB Stuttgart and the best they can hope for is a sixth place finish in the Bundesliga.

You can make the stats sound positive for either team.

Leverkusen have progressed to the next round after failing to win the first leg twice already during this Europa League campaign.

They were defeated 3-2 at home by Monaco in the first leg of their play-off round tie before eventually progressing on penalties, while they drew 1-1 with Belgian underdogs Saint-Gilloise in last month’s quarter-finals before cantering to a 4-1 victory in the return fixture.

Their home form is largely impressive too.

A 2-0 victory against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League in September set the tone in that regard.

A 5-0 win over Union Berlin in November was another highlight, while a series of four wins on the bounce at their own ground this spring – against Hertha Berlin (4-1), Bayern Munich (2-1), Eintracht Frankfurt (3-1) and Leipzig (2-0) – raised levels even further.

Roma have not generally enjoyed the most favourable results in Germany and their you have to go back 22 years to their last away success against a Bundesliga outfit – against Hamburg in the UEFA Cup.

However, they have emerged victorious in 10 of their last 11 UEFA knockout ties.

So, there we have it.

Alonso facing Mourinho; the Spaniard pitting his wits against the Portuguese manager who was his boss between 2010 and 2013 at Real Madrid, where the two won the 2011 Copa Del Rey and La Liga the following season.

They certainly have momentum under Alonso and there are reasons to believe more Europa League highlights could be just around the corner.

Although it is never wise to write off Mourinho.

History

In addition to last week’s first leg, these teams have met four times before – all in the Champions League.

In 2015 they shared an eight goal thriller which was pulsating from start to last.

Javier Hernandez netted twice inside the opening 19 minutes before a Daniele De Rossi double brought the club from the Italian capital level by the break.

Miralem Pjanic and Iago Falque then put the visitors 4-2 in front only for the spirited hosts to score twice in three minutes through Kevin Kampl and Admir Mehmedi as the contest finished 4-4.

There was plenty of excitement in the return fixture which Roma edged 3-2, thanks to an 80^th minute Pjanic spot-kick.

On that occasion, Roma had raced into a 2-0 lead via Mohamed Salah and Edin Dzeko before Mehmedi and Hernandez restored parity early in the second half.

In the 2004 group stages, the match in Roma finished level pegging as Dimitar Berbatov and Vincenzo Montella traded goals, all in the final eight minutes.

Leverkusen won in Germany as they recovered from conceding a first half own goal to run out 3-1 winners with Roque Junior, Jacek Krzynówek and Franca all on target in the second half.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Europa League betting odds actually make Leverkusen clear favourites.

Roma are priced 1X2 @ 3.30 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.17.

Meanwhile, the hosts are on offer 1X2 @ 2.06 and Asian Handicap – 0.75 @ 2.42.

All those odds are tempting, as is the prize available should they play out another 4-4 – a repeat scoreline would see Correct Score pay out @ 225.00.

I expect a close contest with a few goals and total goal 0-1 @ 2.60 and 1X2 Draw @ 3.20 caught my eye.

However, I am going for Leverkusen to claw back the deficit with a ** prediction of Half Time Full Time Home Home @ 2.76. Whether that is enough to win the tie, of course, remains to be seen.

 

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