Bundesliga: Who Can Beat the Runaway Leaders?

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich

Anyone who reads the Bundesliga news intently will know that RB Leipzig’s rise in German football has been a remarkable story, and their impact has been felt throughout the country. Indeed, it is a rise that has been met with both admiration and criticism.

Yet the reality is that it was never likely to be sustained when they could not keep hold of their top players.

And so, the reality is that we approach mid-January with them a respectable third in the standings but with limited Bundesliga 2026 highlights to shout about and even less chance of a title tilt.

This weekend, to prove the point, they host runaway leaders Bayern Munich, who they trail by a massive 15 points.

 

Talking Points

The warning signs were there in August when the curtain raiser to the campaign, the German Super Cup Final, showed just why it is Bayern who would remain the team to beat.

It is now three months since they started to pull clear at the summit and, with an 11-point lead over second-place Borussia Dortmund, it’s fair to say everyone is already playing for second spot.

After 17 matches, Vincent Kompany’s men have amassed 47 points and a goal difference of +53, bigger than the previous record they managed in 2013/14.

The challenge of inflicting a first league defeat of the season on the Bavarians, though, would have some kudos, and that is what the hosts will aim for this weekend. The main concern in their ranks is winger Johan Bakayoko, who is dealing with a calf injury.

Bayern come into the game with a few issues of their own, notably in defence. After Josip Stanišić was ruled out of action for a month, Konrad Laimer will now miss the return to his former club after suffering a calf muscle strain in Wednesday night’s win at Cologne.

With the likes of Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, Luis Diaz, and Harry Kane as goal threats, it’s fair to say Leipzig’s defence will be put to the test.

This will not be a “gimme’ though, as most of their matches appear to have been to onlookers this term. That’s because Leipzig have a fine record at home. In fact, they have won eight of their nine games in front of their own supporters at the Red Bull Arena this campaign.

After failing to qualify for European competition last season, Leipzig are now on track for a spot in the Champions League next season and, after a 2-0 midweek win at home to Freiburg, a positive result against the champions will consolidate that.

It should be a milestone weekend for a regular figure in the Bayern ranks, with goalkeeper Manuel Neuer expected to make his 584th competitive appearance, which would see him draw level with the legendary Franz Beckenbauer. Only Thomas Müller (756), Sepp Maier (709), Oliver Kahn (632), and Gerd Müller (607) have played more games for the record champions.

 

History

Bayern often have the upper hand against Bundesliga opponents, and Leipzig are no exception. The Bavarians have won 13 of the 23 meetings between the two, including 6-0 and 5-1 triumphs in two of the last three meetings. Leipzig, though, did delay Bayern’s title party with a 3-3 draw in the corresponding meeting last season.

On that occasion, a Benjamin Sesko strike and a Lukas Klostermann header had Leipzig in front, but three goals in 21 second-half minutes from Eric Dier, Olise, and Leroy Sane put Bayern on the brink of victory until Yussuf Poulsen struck at the death to earn a point.

Kompany’s men were at their destructive best on the opening day of this season as Kane recorded his 16th career hat-trick in the 6-0 romp.

Leipzig haven’t beaten Bayern at home in the Bundesliga since March 2018, a game in which Naby Keita and Timo Werner were on target in a 2-1 success.

They last defeated them six games ago in the 2023 German Super Cup Final, a contest in which Kane made his debut as a substitute.

Dani Olmo was the hero that evening with a hat-trick in a 3-0 Leipzig success (again a player they were unable to, ultimately, keep hold of).

 

Betting Tip

How can you bet against Bayern with the SBOTOP Bundesliga 2026 betting odds? Certainly, they are big favourites with odds which include 1X2 @ 1.51 and Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 2.38.

Leipzig, meanwhile, are priced 1X2 @ 4.64 and Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.31. The draw @ 4.47 represents good value and has tempted me, but I do think Bayern will have just too much.

   

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