Bayern Munich vs FSV Mainz 05
The German Bundesliga is back folks and the champions FC Bayern kick off the New Year with a home tie against strugglers FSV Mainz on Sunday.
Even on paper first against 17th looks a little like a foregone conclusion, but when the action is played out on grass I fear for the visitors.
Bayern haven’t been firing on all cylinders but still find themselves top of the league and the New Year invariably sees the Bavarian juggernaut gather frightening pace.
Meanwhile, Mainz’s season just seems to be going from bad to worse.
Talking Points
Bayern’s massive incentive to win
Die Bayern asserted their authority with a win over Bayer Leverkusen in their last outing but things remain very tight at the top of the Bundesliga table.
The Bavarian’s lead over both Leverkusen and Red Bull Leipzig is only two points, though fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund are eight points back and two behind high-flying Wolfsburg.
The very latest Bundesliga 2021 betting odds aren’t budging in their faith in Die Bayern, with odds of 1.10 on them retaining their title.
The two nearest rivals are at 13.00 and BVB are at 15.00 with Wolfsburg the only other team below 100.00 (at 91.00).
But head coach Hansi Flick knows that both Bayer and Red Bull will fight for every single point, and so his men will be ready to match them
Robert Lewandowski has 17 league goals already and Kingsley Coman has made seven assists so far. I expect both of them to increase their tally on Sunday.
Rudderless Mainz needs a miracle
FSV Mainz go into the toughest game of their season in more turmoil after ex-head coach Jan-Moritz Lichte was given Christmas off when he was sacked by the club on the 23rd December.
Mainz are in real trouble as they’re in 17th place in the league table and four points adrift of the playoff lifeline.
Here at SBOTOP, we’re offering 2.70 on them to finish in the bottom two, with Schalke 04 and new boys Arminia Bielefeld favourites to take the automatic drop.
But Die Nullfunfer have a nightmare run in January, facing ninth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, and then Dortmund, Wolfsburg, and Leipzig over the next three weeks.
They could easily find themselves cut adrift.
A recent defeat at home to Koln was a missed opportunity for Mainz and they haven’t scored a goal in the last four league games. They last hit the net in a 2-1 defeat to Bielefeld on 5th December.
They did score a couple in their last outing with a DFB Pokal Cup second round tie at home to Bundesliga 2 side Bochum 1848, but they even managed to lose that on penalties after 10-man Bochum had equalised in injury time, prompting the board to bullet their head coach.
Skipper Danny Latza was on target and the midfield general will need to lead from the front if his team is to get out of the current mess it finds itself in.
So who can help their skipper in a seemingly impossible task on Sunday?
Well French striker Jean-Philippe Mateta has seven goals, while Swedish striker Robin Quaison has previously been on the radar of Premier League club Burnley.
Following the Clarets’ takeover they might rekindle their interest, and no one outside Mainz would blame Quaison for jumping ship.
And defender Moussa Niakhate will have to sit this one out having picked up five yellow cards along with a red.
History
The champions have won 25 of the 33 meetings between these two teams this century, while the perennial underdogs have managed five victories and three draws.
Rather ominously, Bayern have hit Mainz for six in the last two meetings at the Allianz Arena, winning 6-1 last season and 6-0 in 2018/19.
Mainz faired a little better in 2017/18, losing 4-0, while they have lost all their home fixtures over the last three seasons too.
Recent form tells a similar story. Bayern have won three and drawn three of the last six and are unbeaten at home, while Mainz is without a victory in the last six games.
Betting Tip
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Bayern Munich vs FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern Munich Asian Handicap -2.50 @ 1.84 |
| January 4, 01:00 (GMT+8) |
At odds of 1.15, anything other than a Bayern victory would be a major shock.
You would be able to comb the Bundesliga 2021 results all the way to May without finding a bigger one.
But this is 11 versus 11, and with the draw at 7.28 or a Mainz win at 19.24, the brave could be rewarded handsomely.
But not me!
A correct scoreline of 3-0 at odds of 6.95 is very tempting, but the safe option is Bayern to win by three or more as they have made a habit of doing against these opponents.
It could get messy for Mainz.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR ( ) BETS ARE WORTH: |
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|---|---|---|---|
 = €20 (Highly confident) |
= €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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