FA Cup: Fun for Fulham would mean Horror for Howe

Fulham vs Newcastle United

Eddie Howe’s Newcastle make the long trip down to West London on Saturday for a fascinating clash when Craven Cottage will be packed to the rafters to watch FA Cup: Fulham vs Newcastle United. 

Newcastle come into the game on the back of a 3-2 defeat at home to Manchester City and they have had a week to prepare, while their hosts are in EFL Cup action in midweek when they take on Liverpool in the Carabao Cup semi-final. Only three places separate the two teams in the league, the Cottagers are 13^th and Newcastle tenth, and that’s a position which puts Howe under a lot more pressure than Fulham boss Marco Silva.

A home win on Saturday would continue the feel-good factor at the Cottage, while it could spell disaster for Howe and his Magpies. 

Talking Points

Jimenez resurgence can fire Fulham to success

There were plenty of worried faces around Craven Cottage when Alexandar Mitrovic headed off to Saudi Arabia in the summer and the first few weeks of the campaign brought a mixture of flowing football and wastefulness in front of goal. The recruitment of former Wolves striker Raul Jimenez looked like a cut price option but the player, seriously injured when he was at Molineux, has looked like his old self over the past couple of months, leading the line and giving defences plenty to think about.

The Mexican notched in Fulham’s defeat to Aston Villa in November and, after scoring less than a goal a game from their first 12 outings, the Cottagers went on to score 16 in their next four, including 5-0 wallopings of  Nottingham Forest and a very strong West Ham side. Now the 32-year-old is top scoring with five goals while co-striker Bobby Decordova Reid and winger Willian has four. He scored the opener in Fulham’s 2-1 victory over Arsenal with Reid scoring the second and both are certain to line up against the Magpies.  

The Fulham vs Newcastle United betting odds say Fulham will have to work hard to beat the Geordies but Silva is ambitious and his team always plays with confidence: “Last season we were promoted and we played in the FA Cup quarter final and our aim is always to go further,” he says. And his captain Tom Cairney is equally excited by the prospect of cup success, admitting that he thinks about leading the team out at Wembley.

Money can’t help Newcastle right now

While the Saudi investment and Howe’s superb management helped the Magpies to avoid relegation in 2022, and then qualify for the Champions League in 2023, the Premier League’s Financial Fair Play rules are starting to bite and, as Everton have already found out the authorities seem to have, belatedly, found some teeth. And the timing is isn’t great for Newcastle who, over half way through the season are 14 points off the top four and 19^th in the Premier League form table. The league’s profitability and sustainability rules could mean Newcastle will have to sell, and reports in the UK press have been circulating that suggest influential wingback Kieran Trippier could be on his way, with Bundesliga giants FC Bayern making a move for the England star. 

Howe is in the unfortunate situation that he might have to make some sales before he can buy and he is already struggling to use the loan market to make reinforcements. A long term injury to Joelinton is another blow and defensive problems have seen the Magpies concede ten goals in the last four games; the only respite being a 3-0 Cup win over local rivals Sunderland.

In my SBOTOP preview last week I predicted Manchester City would heap more misery on the Magpies and so they did; but not until Newcastle went into a 2-1 lead. This is a team which can play great football when it clicks and with attacking options including Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron they can hurt any side. But it is Howe’s team which is hurting at the moment.     

History

The head-to-head Fulham vs Newcastle United results are matched at 14 wins each in all competitions since 2001, but the Magpies have won the last four encounters, including a 3-0 win at St James’ Park just before Christmas, when they scored three second half goals after Raul Jimenez had been sent off early in the game.

This has been a happy hunting ground for the Magpies as the Cottagers’ last home win against Newcastle came back in 2016.    

In terms of recent form, Fulham have two wins and four defeats from the last six games while Newcastle have won one and lost five.

Betting Tip

Fulham are at 2.66 to win this game with the draw at 3.08 and Newcastle at 2.22; so the Geordies have the edge with the SBOTOP odds. Howe has longer to prepare and that is in his favour, but I think the pressure on Newcastle to win will be a huge weight on their shoulders and Fulham could take advantage.     

 

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