The Euro 2020 group stage is going right down to the wire. With only three teams qualified for the round of 16, so many places are still up for grabs heading into the last round of group games.
Favourites like England and France are in a decent position to join Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands in the knockouts, but the likes of Germany, Spain, and Portugal still have a lot of work to do.
To help keep track of everything that’s at stake in the third and final group stage games, SBOTOP has listed down all the different scenarios for each team to qualify for the round of 16.
Group A
Italy are already through to the round of 16 after impressive Euro 2020 results over both Turkey and Switzerland. The Azzurri will clinch top spot if they avoid defeat in their final match against Wales.
Wales look secure in second with four points and a +2 goal difference. They win the group if they beat the Azzurri, while a draw or a Switzerland loss would guarantee second spot.
Switzerland could still finish second if they beat Turkey and Wales lose, although they would also need to overcome a significant goal difference disadvantage. But beating Turkey could still see them qualify as one of the top third-placed teams.
Turkey can also still qualify through the best third-place teams route if they beat the Swiss, although three points and a negative goal difference might not be enough.
Group B
Like Italy, Belgium are through thanks to two wins out of two. The Red Devils will win the group if they at least draw their final game against Finland, who are fighting with Russia for second spot.
Russia and Finland are tied on three points. But Russia hold the tiebreaker after winning their matchup, so they will finish second if they defeat Denmark or match whatever result Finland get.
On the flipside, Finland will finish second if they beat Belgium and Russia don’t win. A draw could also see them through if Russia lose to Denmark. Four points should also be enough to see them through as one of the top third-place teams.
Finally, Denmark can still finish second if they beat Russia and Finland lose to Belgium. Denmark, Finland, and Russia would all be tied at three points in that scenario, so the tiebreakers would take effect.
Group C
Group C is the most straightforward of the six groups. The Netherlands are the only team thus far that has been confirmed as group winners. Meanwhile, North Macedonia are the only team to be eliminated since they cannot finish in the top three even with a win. Fittingly, those two face each other in their final game which has absolutely nothing at stake.
That just leaves Ukraine and Austria left to fight it out for second and third. The two teams are tied at three points with a zero goal difference, but in case of a draw, Ukraine hold the tiebreaker and would finish second because they have scored one more goal.
Therefore, Austria’s only chance to finish second is to beat Ukraine. Although, a draw could also end up benefitting both teams.
Group D
Czech Republic and England have four points apiece and are favoured to emerge from Group D. Croatia and Scotland have one point each, but both are very much still alive.
A draw would see both the Czech Republic and England through to the round of 16. But in that scenario, the Czechs win the group due to a superior goal difference. Therefore, Gareth Southgate’s side must beat the Czechs to win the group.
Meanwhile, Croatia and Scotland simply must win to have any chance of qualifying for the knockout round. A draw does neither team any good as it would see both of them eliminated.
The winner of Croatia-Scotland can rise as high as second depending on the result of the other match. But even if they only finish third, four points would still put either team in a decent position in the third-place team standings.
Group E
Sweden are in decent shape to qualify from Group E whatever happens in their final game against Poland. They top the group if they beat Poland, while a draw would secure them at least second. A loss would send the Swedes down to third, but they have four points and can still be among the top third-place teams.
Meanwhile, Slovakia will go through if they beat Spain, of if they draw and Sweden don’t lose to Poland. Slovakia can also win the group if they beat Spain and Sweden don’t beat Poland.
Despite suffering another draw against Poland, Spain just need to beat Slovakia to advance. They can even win the group if they win and Poland beat Sweden. A draw would only see them finish third or fourth depending on the other game’s result.
As for Poland, they can still finish second if they beat Sweden, but Slovakia and Spain must not draw. But even if Poland finish third, four points puts them in good shape to go be one of the top third-place teams.
Group F
Reigning world champions France still have work to do in the Group of Death after drawing with Hungary. They will win Group F if they beat Portugal, and a draw will see them finish at least second. However, they can still finish third if they lose and Hungary somehow beat Germany and overcome their goal difference disadvantage. Although, the Euro 2020 odds of that happening are unlikely.
Germany will guarantee their place in the last 16 by beating Hungary, and they will top the group if they win and France do not. A draw can still see the Germans through if France prevent Portugal from winning. The Germans can finish no lower than third since they defeated Portugal, but three points might not be enough to see them qualify.
Meanwhile, it’s still possible for Portugal to finish anywhere from first to fourth. They will win the group if they win and Germany fail to beat France. And they will finish fourth if both they and Germany lose. A win over France, or a draw and Germany loss, would see them finish in the top two.
And finally, Hungary need to beat Germany to stand any chance of qualifying. The Magyars can move up to second if France-Portugal has a winner, although they can only finish third with a win and a France-Portugal draw.
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